Junk Silver vs Graded Silver
Pre-1965 US silver coins (junk silver) trade on melt value plus a small premium. Graded examples trade on numismatics. Which strategy actually wins long-term?
The Tradeoff: Junk silver is a pure bullion bet with optionality if silver goes parabolic. Graded silver is a numismatic bet with a bullion floor. Different risk profiles, different time horizons.
Junk Silver Math
A 90% silver pre-1965 coin's melt value: face value × 0.715 × current spot silver price. So a 1964 quarter at $32 silver = $0.25 × 0.715 × 32 / 1.292 (oz/oz) ≈ $5.18 melt value. Dealer premium 3-8%.
| Silver Price | $1 Face Junk | $100 Face Bag |
|---|---|---|
| $25/oz | ~$18 | ~$1,800 |
| $32/oz | ~$23 | ~$2,300 |
| $50/oz | ~$36 | ~$3,600 |
| $100/oz | ~$72 | ~$7,200 |
Graded Silver Math
A 1964 Washington Quarter MS-67 PCGS trades $400-700. The same coin in junk silver: ~$5. The 100x premium is for condition rarity, not silver content.
The premium decouples from silver price. If silver doubles, the MS-67 quarter still trades on numismatic supply/demand — maybe up 5-15%, not 100%.
If silver crashes, the floor is the bullion value. So a $500 graded quarter with $5 melt has 99% downside before the floor — meaning it's effectively a numismatic asset with negligible bullion protection.
When Each Wins
Junk Silver Wins When:
- You expect silver to rally significantly
- You want bullion + small numismatic kicker
- You prioritize liquidity (sell anywhere)
- You're holding 1-5 years
Graded Wins When:
- You're building a set/series
- You expect numismatic appreciation independent of silver
- You're holding 5-20+ years
- You can stomach less liquidity
Track Both Markets
Coin Curator pulls junk silver dealer premiums alongside graded coin comps.
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